http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/ Ramblings of a somewhat libertarian stock market speculator Sat, 07 Jan 2012 03:21:08 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/comment-page-1/#comment-43645 Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart « Bayesian Investor Blog Sat, 01 May 2010 02:34:07 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/#comment-43645 [...] (Tetlock makes similar suggestions). [...] [...] (Tetlock makes similar suggestions). [...]

]]> http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/comment-page-1/#comment-19395 Charles Twardy Mon, 22 Jan 2007 03:19:50 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/#comment-19395 Re: why do simple autoregressive models outperform humans? Meehl found that even _randomly_ weighted regressions outperformed humans. One explanation: even randomly weighted models tend to put nonzero weight on all factors being considered. People have a hard time with more than 2 or 3, effectively zeroing the rest. Re: why do simple autoregressive models outperform humans?
Meehl found that even _randomly_ weighted regressions outperformed humans.
One explanation: even randomly weighted models tend to put nonzero weight on all factors being considered. People have a hard time with more than 2 or 3, effectively zeroing the rest.

]]> http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/comment-page-1/#comment-14603 Mike Linksvayer » Bias enumeration Thu, 23 Nov 2006 03:18:59 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/#comment-14603 [...] , I thought initially, but “closer than many think” is the key), #11, and #12. Apparently Tetlock says foxes make more accurate predictions [...] [...] , I thought initially, but “closer than many think” is the key), #11, and #12. Apparently Tetlock says foxes make more accurate predictions [...]

]]> http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/comment-page-1/#comment-14599 Peter McCluskey Thu, 23 Nov 2006 02:07:48 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/#comment-14599 Hal Finney has apparently <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/11/quiz_fox_or_hed.html" rel="nofollow">created a test</a> that implements Tetlock's Fox versus Hedgehog scale. I took it, trying to correct for the bias I got by reading Tetlock's book (although I doubt I know how well I corrected for that bias), and got +2 (weakly toward the fox side of neutral). Hal Finney has apparently created a test that implements Tetlock’s Fox versus Hedgehog scale. I took it, trying to correct for the bias I got by reading Tetlock’s book (although I doubt I know how well I corrected for that bias), and got +2 (weakly toward the fox side of neutral).

]]> http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/comment-page-1/#comment-12076 Everything about Prediction Markets » Blog Archive » Expert Political Judgment Fri, 29 Sep 2006 14:55:46 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/09/22/expert-political-judgment/#comment-12076 [...] roughly as I would like (even though he’s thorough enough to be … Original post by Administrator and software by Elliott Back [...] [...] roughly as I would like (even though he’s thorough enough to be … Original post by Administrator and software by Elliott Back [...]

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