http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/24/how-to-spend-10-trillion/ Ramblings of a somewhat libertarian stock market speculator Sat, 07 Jan 2012 03:21:08 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/24/how-to-spend-10-trillion/comment-page-1/#comment-42509 Peter McCluskey Fri, 01 Aug 2008 15:20:33 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/24/how-to-spend-10-trillion/#comment-42509 It's quite possible that I disagree with you about how effective drugs have been, and/or about how QALY based prizes would improve the effectiveness of drugs. Do you know of any clear evidence on the overall effectiveness of drugs? There appear to be clear examples of drugs that have been valuable and would save more lives if improved incentives made them available in poor countries (e.g. HIV drugs), and it isn't clear how other drugs could offset this by enough to change my conclusion. Also, a big part of my reasoning is that drug research is one of the few areas where returns on investment don't appear to drop by a large amount after the first trillion dollars. Possibly this would also be true of seasteading or prediction markets, but I have too little information about those to say. Possibly "drugs" is a category that is narrower than I want. Maybe I should use a broader term such as "medical treatments" to be sure to include anything that might fall within SENS. It’s quite possible that I disagree with you about how effective drugs have been, and/or about how QALY based prizes would improve the effectiveness of drugs.
Do you know of any clear evidence on the overall effectiveness of drugs?
There appear to be clear examples of drugs that have been valuable and would save more lives if improved incentives made them available in poor countries (e.g. HIV drugs), and it isn’t clear how other drugs could offset this by enough to change my conclusion.
Also, a big part of my reasoning is that drug research is one of the few areas where returns on investment don’t appear to drop by a large amount after the first trillion dollars. Possibly this would also be true of seasteading or prediction markets, but I have too little information about those to say.
Possibly “drugs” is a category that is narrower than I want. Maybe I should use a broader term such as “medical treatments” to be sure to include anything that might fall within SENS.

]]> http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/24/how-to-spend-10-trillion/comment-page-1/#comment-42508 Robin Hanson Wed, 30 Jul 2008 22:39:09 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/07/24/how-to-spend-10-trillion/#comment-42508 Half the money on drugs? You must think drugs are lots more effective than I do. Half the money on drugs? You must think drugs are lots more effective than I do.

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