Comments on: Intrade versus FiveThirtyEight

By: David

David — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 14:14:11 +0000

Interesting blog entry here. I do not see an email address, but I am a PhD candidate who has been following this 538 versus Intrade debate closely and I was hoping it would be possible for you to share the full set of results that you saved for 538 and Intrade?!? It was be very useful in a project that I am doing on this topic. Thank You!!!

By: Peter McCluskey

Peter McCluskey — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 02:33:05 +0000

Not moot, but the correlations imply that the data tell us less than what a casual reading might lead one to expect.

By: 2008 US presidential elections | Midas Oracle .ORG

2008 US presidential elections | Midas Oracle .ORG — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 09:12:31 +0000

[...] Chris F. Masse November 7th, 2008 – InTrade versus Nate Silver [...]

By: jsalvati

jsalvati — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 23:59:58 +0000

Isn’t a lot of this moot because elections are not independent events? Elections which occur at the same time are correlated for a number of reasons, which would show up as bias (either for or against prediction markets), even though none may exist.

By: Steve Demaughlin

Steve Demaughlin — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 20:26:22 +0000

I was looking at Betfair’s site at http://www.betfairpredicts.com and noticed they did a decent job vs. 538 also — it looks like they called Indiana correctly when 538 did not prior to election returns. It appears they also got north carolina ahead of the pack. Missouri seems to have been a toss-up late.

By: Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 20:19:05 +0000

This emphasizes that we need to give priority to reducing the market long shot bias, such as by paying interest on deposits.