Archive for July, 2009

The Law Market

Tuesday, July 21st, 2009

Book review: The Law Market by Erin A. O’Hara and Larry E. Ribstein.

This book describes why it has become easier for parties to a contract to choose which legal system will be applied to their contract, both in terms of the political forces that enabled choice and why it’s good that choice is possible.

The political forces include the ability of some parties to physically leave a jurisdiction if they have inadequate choices about what law will be applied to them. Often enough those parties are employers that legislators want to remain in their jurisdiction.

The benefits include simple things like predictability of contract interpretation when the contract covers things that involve physical locations associated with multiple jurisdictions where there otherwise would be no reliable way to predict which court would assert jurisdiction over disputes. They also include less direct effects of providing incentives for legal systems to improve so as to attract more customers.

The book mostly deals with contracts between corporations, and is much more tentative about advocating choice of law for individuals.

The book provides examples showing that as with most markets, competition for law produces better law. But is also mentions more questionable results, such as competition for most effective tax shelters or the easiest terms for divorce (for divorce, the book suggests those who want divorce to be hard should try to arrange contracts that allocate assets in a way that discourages divorce; it would be harder for easy-divorce states to justify ignoring those contracts). There’s also a risk that the competition will sometimes benefit lawyers rather than their clients, as clients often rely on lawyers to decide which legal system to use without having a practical way to check who benefits from some of those choices.

The book is often dull reading because it often describes case law to explain quirks of current law that will be of interest to few non-lawyers.

One part that disappointed me was the assumption that the choice of jurisdiction should dictate the physical location in which plaintiffs must argue their case (the travel costs can make some lawsuits unpractical to a consumer suing a company if the company decides the location at which a suit is argued). Why are we trapped in a set of rules that requires travel to a possibly distant court when we have technology that provides reasonable remote communications?

Human Enhancement

Friday, July 10th, 2009

Book review: Human Enhancement, edited by Julian Savulescu and Nick Bostrom.

This book starts out with relatively uninteresting articles and only the last quarter of so of it is worth reading.

Because I agree with most of the arguments for enhancement, I skipped some of the pro-enhancement arguments and tried to read the anti-enhancement arguments carefully. They mostly boil down to the claim that people’s preference for natural things is sufficient to justify broad prohibitions on enhancing human bodies and human nature. That isn’t enough of an argument to deserve as much discussion as it gets.

A few of the concerns discussed by advocates of enhancement are worth more thought. The question of whether unenhanced humans would retain political equality and rights enables us to imagine dystopian results of enhancement. Daniel Walker provides a partly correct analysis of conditions under which enhanced beings ought to paternalistically restrict the choices and political power of the unenhanced. But he’s overly complacent about assuming the paternalists will have the interests of the unenhanced at heart. The biggest problem with paternalism to date is that it’s done by people who are less thoughtful about the interests of the people they’re controlling than they are about finding ways to serve their own self-interest. It is possible that enhanced beings will be perfect altruists, but it is far from being a natural consequence of enhancement.

The final chapter points out the risks of being overconfident of our ability to improve on nature. They describe questions we should ask about why evolution would have produced a result that is different from what we want. One example that they give suggests they remain overconfident – they repeat a standard claim about the human appendix being a result of evolution getting stuck in a local optimum. Recent evidence suggests that the appendix performs a valuable function in recovery from diarrhea (still a major cause of death in places) and harm from appendicitis seems rare outside of industrialized nations (maybe due to differences in dietary fiber?).

The most new and provocative ideas in the book have little to do with the medical enhancements that the title evokes. Robin Hanson’s call for mechanisms to make people more truthful probably won’t gather much support, as people are clever about finding objections to any specific method that would be effective. Still, asking the question the way he does may encourage some people to think more clearly about their goals.

Nick Bostrom and Anders Sandberg describe an interesting (original?) hypothesis about why placebos (sometimes) work. It involves signaling that there is relatively little need to conserve the body’s resources for fighting future injuries and diseases. Could this understanding lead to insights about how to more directly and reliably trigger this effect? More effective placebos have been proposed as jokes. Why is it so unusual to ask about serious research into this subject?

Confusing S&P Index Earnings Numbers

Saturday, July 4th, 2009

I just noticed some confused arguments between Jeremy Siegel and Standard and Poors over how to aggregate earnings for companies in a stock index to produce a meaningful report of what the companies in the index earned.
See here and here.

Siegel provides an example involving percent changes in Exxon-Mobil and Jones Apparel. But that has a weak resemblance to what S&P is doing. A more accurate analogy to what S&P is doing would use changes to market cap rather than percent changes. If Jones Apparel declined in market cap by $10 billion, it would hurt the index just as badly as a $10 billion decline in Exxon-Mobil’s market cap. Looked at that way, S&P’s approach looks sensible.

But since Jones Apparel has a market cap of less than $1 billion, the current bankruptcy laws make it far-fetched that Jones Apparel could lose more than $1 billion in market cap.

If you’re using earnings as a proxy for the health of the economy, S&P’s method doesn’t create a problem – the bankruptcy laws affect who loses money, but the money is still lost. But for an investor, Siegel has a point which is half right.

Siegel’s solution of weighting earnings by market cap may work well under any realistic conditions, but has no sensible theory behind it, and can fail badly under some far-fetched conditions. Imagine that Jones Apparel reports an unexpected one-time windfall of $1 trillion, which ought to raise the market cap of Jones Apparel by about $1 trillion. The way S&P computes S&P 500 earnings, an investor looking at S&P 500 earnings would see a strong hint that the value of the S&P 500 ought to rise by about $1 trillion. But under Siegel’s method, the initial effect on S&P 500 earnings would suggest a barely noticeable rise in the value of the S&P 500 of under $1 billion. Then at some point the Jones Apparel market cap would soar and the S&P 500 earnings would be recomputed with much different weights and investors would see a much different picture. So Siegel has proposed something which could result in a potentially large change in reported S&P 500 earnings without any change in the what shares someone who invests in the S&P 500 holds and without any changes in reported earnings.

Morningstar has a method (PDF) designed for evaluating portfolios that uses a harmonic weighted average and ignores companies with negative earnings. That has advantages, but the magnitude of losses provides some hints about how far a company is from profitability, so an ideal method should pay some attention to losses.

Siegel mentions comments by Shiller that suggest Shiller has better (but possibly impractical) ideas. I doubt Shiller’s analysis provides as much support for Siegel’s argument as Siegel claims.

Any sensible investor looks at a multi-year average of earnings along the lines suggested by Shiller, which minimizes the problems associated with faulty weighting of earnings.