Idea Futures

I’ve made a change to the software which should fix the bug uncovered last weekend.
I’ve restored about half of the liquidity I was providing before last weekend. I believe I can continue to provide the current level of liquidity for at least a few more months unless prices change more than I currently anticipate. I may readjust the amount of liquidity provided in a month or two to increase the chances that I can continue to provide a moderate amount of liquidity until all contracts expire without adding more money to the account.
I’m not making new software public now. I anticipate doing so before the end of November.

Last night an Intrade trader found and exploited a bug in my Automated Market Maker, manipulating DEM.PRES-TROOPS.IRAQ until Intrade rejected one of the market maker’s orders for lack of credit and the software shut down.
The bug involves handling of partial executions of orders, and doesn’t appear to be easily fixable (what happened looks nearly identical to the scenarios I had analyzed and thought I had guarded against).
For the moment, I’ve reduced the market maker’s order size to one contract, which will prevent further exploitation but provide much less liquidity.
I will try to fix the bug sometime in November and increase the order size (on the contracts that don’t get expired at election time) by as much as I can without adding more money to the market maker’s account. I will also analyze the information provided by the markets shortly after the election.

The stock market reacted to today’s defeat of the bank bailout bill with an unusually big decline. Yet the news wasn’t much of a surprise to people watching Intrade, whose contract BAILOUT.APPROVE.SEP08 was trading around 20% all morning. Why did the stock market act as if it was a big surprise?
Did Intrade traders make a lucky guess not based on adequate evidence? Did they have evidence that the stock market ignored? Could the stock market have priced in an 80% chance of the bill being defeated (if so, that would seem to imply that passage would have caused the biggest one-day rise in history)? Could the stock market have been reacting to other news which just happened to coincide with the House vote? (It looks like the market had a short-lived jump coinciding with news that House leaders hoped to twist enough arms to reverse the vote, but I wasn’t able to watch the timing carefully because I was at the dentist).

It seems like one of these must be true, but each once seems improbable.

Arnold Kling, whose comments on the bailout have been better than most, was surprised that the bill failed.

I covered a few of my S&P 500 futures short positions at near the end of trading, but I’m still positioned quite cautiously (I made a small profit today).

To deter any suspicion that the comparisons I plan to make between Intrade’s predictions and polls are comparisons I selected to make Intrade look good, I’m announcing now that I intend to use FiveThirtyEight.com as the primary poll aggregator. I intend to pay attention to predictions that are more long-term than I focused in 2004, so the comparison I’ll attach the most importance to will be based on the first snapshot I took of FiveThirtyEight.com’s state by state projections, which was on July 24.

Also, as of last week, one of the Presidential Decision Markets that I’m subsidizing, DEM.PRES-OIL.FUTURES, has attracted enough trading (I suspect from one large trader) to make me reasonably confident that it’s showing the effects of trader opinion rather than the effects of my automated market maker (saying that oil futures will drop if the Democratic candidate wins, and rise if he loses).

Book review: Infotopia: How Many Minds Produce Knowledge by Cass R. Sunstein.
There’s a lot of overlap between James Surowiecki’s The Wisdom of Crowds and Infotopia, but Infotopia is a good deal more balanced and careful to avoid exaggeration. This makes Infotopia less exciting but more likely to convince a thoughtful reader. It devotes a good deal of attention to conditions which make groups less wise than individuals as well as conditions where groups outperform the best individuals.
Infotopia is directed at people who know little about this subject. I found hardly any new insights in it, and few ideas that I disagreed with. Some of its comments will seem too obvious to be worth mentioning to anyone who uses the web much. It’s slightly better than Wisdom of Crowds, but if you’ve already read Wisdom of Crowds you’ll get little out of Infotopia.

Predictocracy (part 2)
Book review: Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making by Michael Abramowicz (continued from prior post).
I’m puzzled by his claim that it’s easier to determine a good subsidy for a PM that predicts what subsidy we should use for a basic PM than it is to determine the a good subsidy for the basic PM. My intuition tells me that at least until traders become experienced with predicting effects of subsidies, the markets that are farther removed from familiar questions will be less predictable. Even with experience, for many of the book’s PMs it’s hard to see what measurable criteria could tell us whether one subsidy level is better than another. There will be some criteria that indicate severely mistaken subsidy levels (zero trading, or enough trading to produce bubbles). But if we try something more sophisticated, such as measuring how accurately PMs with various subsidy levels predict the results of court cases, I predict that we will find some range of subsidies above which increased subsidy produces tiny increases in correlations between PMs and actual trials. Even if we knew that the increased subsidy was producing a more just result, how would we evaluate the tradeoff between justice and the cost of the subsidy? And how would we tell whether the increased subsidy is producing a more just result, or whether the PMs were predicting the actual court cases more accurately by observing effects of factors irrelevant to justice (e.g. the weather on the day the verdict is decided)?
His proposal for self-resolving prediction markets (i.e. markets that predict markets recursively with no grounding in observed results) is bizarre. His arguments about why some of the obvious problems aren’t serious would be fascinating if they didn’t seem pointless due to his failure to address the probably fatal flaw of susceptibility to manipulation.
His description of why short-term PMs may be more resistant to bubbles than stock markets was discredited just as it was being printed. His example of deluded Green Party voters pushing their candidate’s price too high is a near-perfect match for what happened with Ron Paul contracts on Intrade. What Abramowicz missed is that traders betting against Paul needed to tie up a lot more money than traders betting for Paul. High volume futures markets have sophisticated margin rules which mostly eliminate this problem. I expect that low-volume PMs can do the same, but it isn’t easy and companies such as Intrade have only weak motivation to do this.
He suggests that PMs be used to minimize the harm resulting from legislative budget deadlocks by providing tentative funding to projects that PMs predict will receive funding. But if the existence of funding biases legislatures to continue that funding (which appears to be a strong bias, judging by how rare it is for a legislature to stop funding projects), then this proposal would fund many projects that wouldn’t otherwise be funded.
His proposals to use PMs to respond to disasters such as Katrina are poorly thought out. He claims “not much advanced planning of the particular subjects that the markets should cover would be needed”. This appears to underestimate the difficulty of writing unambiguous claims, the time required for traders to understand them, the risks that the agencies creating the PMs will bias the claim wording to the agencies’ advantage, etc. I’d have a lot more confidence in a few preplanned PM claims such as the expected travel times on key sections of roads used in evacuations.
I expect to have additional comments on Predictocracy later this month; they may be technical enough that I will only post the on the futarchy_discuss mailing list.

Book review: Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making by Michael Abramowicz.
This had the potential to be an unusually great book, which makes its shortcomings rather frustrating. It is loaded with good ideas, but it’s often hard to distinguish the good ideas from the bad ideas, and the arguments for the good ideas aren’t as convincing as I hoped.
The book’s first paragraph provides a frustratingly half-right model of why markets produce better predictions than alternative institutions, involving a correlation between confidence (or sincerity) and correctness. If trader confidence was the main mechanism by which markets produce accurate predictions, I’d be pretty reluctant to believe the evidence that Abramowicz presents of their success. Sincerity is hard to measure, so I don’t know what to think of its effects. A layman reading this book would have trouble figuring out that the main force for accurate predictions is that the incentives alter traders’ reasoning so that it becomes more accurate.
The book brings a fresh perspective to an area where there are few enough perspectives that any new perspective is valuable when it’s not clearly wrong. He is occasionally clearer than others. For instance, his figure 4.1 enabled me to compare three scoring rules in a few seconds (I’d previously been unwilling to do the equivalent by reading equations).
He advocates some very fine-grained uses of prediction markets (PMs), which is a sharp contrast to my expectation that they are mainly valuable for important issues. Abramowicz has a very different intuition than I do about how much it costs to run a prediction market for an issue that people normally don’t find interesting. For instance, he wants to partly replace small claims court cases with prediction markets for individual cases. I’m fairly sure that obvious ways to do that would require market subsidies much larger than current court costs. The only way I can imagine PMs becoming an affordable substitute for small claims courts would be if most of the decisions involved were done by software. Even then it’s not obvious why one or more PM per court case would be better than a few more careful evaluations of whether to turn those decisions over to software.
He goes even further when proposing PMs to assess niceness, claiming that “just a few dollars’ worth of subsidy per person” would be adequate to assess peoples’ niceness. Assuming the PM requires human traders, that cost estimate seems several orders of magnitude too low (not to mention the problems with judging such PMs).
His idea of “the market web” seems like a potentially valuable idea for a new way of coordinating diverse decisions.
He convinced me that Predictocracy will solve a larger fraction of democracy’s problems than I initially expected, but I see little reason to believe that it will work as well as Futarchy will. I see important classes of systematic biases (e.g. the desire of politicians and bureaucrats to acquire more power than the rest of us should want) that Futarchy would reduce but which Predictocracy doesn’t appear to alter.
Abramowicz provides reasons to hope that predictions of government decisions 10+ years in the future will help remove partisan components of decisions and quirks of particular decision makers because uncertainty over who will make decisions at that time will cause PMs to average forecasts over several possible decision makers.
He claims evaluations used to judge a PM are likely to be less politicized than evaluations that directly affect policy because the evaluations are made after the PM has determined the policy. Interest groups will sometimes get around this by making credible commitments (at the time PMs are influencing the policy) to influence whoever judges the PM, but the costs of keeping those commitments after the policy has been decided will reduce that influence. I’m not as optimistic about this as Abramowicz is. I expect the effect to be real in some cases, but in many cases the evaluator will effectively be part of the interest group in question.

I just got around to checking out a mailing list devoted to Futarchy. It looks interesting enough that I expect to post a number of messages to it over the next few weeks. But I have some concerns that is focused too much on problems associated with the final stages on the path to a pure Futarchy rather than on what I see as the more valuable goal of implementing an impure system that involves voters relying heavily on market predictions (which I see as a necessary step to take before people will seriously consider pure Futarchy).
I’m in the process of writing comments on the book Predictocracy, probably too many for one post, and I expect I’ll post some of them only on the futarchy_discuss list.

The Politimetrics provides implied probabilities of Clinton or Obama winning in November if they get the nomination, derived from Intrade prices. I’m surprised that it’s been showing recently that the difference in their electabilities has been mostly zero, with occasional indications that Clinton is slightly more electable. Most other sources of information appear to suggest that Obama has more support than Clinton among independents and Republicans.
I just did a little trading to help move the market toward showing Obama as more electable by replacing my small bet against Clinton being nominated with a bet against her becoming president, but the amount I’m willing to trade was small enough that the markets moved in the opposite direction (i.e. showed increased Clinton electability).
What could cause the markets to indicate knowledge that conflicts with what I expect?
It could be that several limitations of Intrade impair market efficiency, such as not making it easy to see what those of us who have noticed the Politimetrics site see, or having margin requirements that are not conducive to exploiting inefficiencies of this nature (even if I were more confident that the market is wrong, the expected return on investment isn’t enough to persuade me to make large trades).
It could be that Obama is sufficiently unusual that there’s more uncertainty in how he will do, so that while the most likely result is that he’d get more votes than Clinton would, there’s a greater chance of a negative surprise with him.
It could be that Clinton is expected to be sufficiently vicious if she’s losing that she would hurt Obama before giving up.
But the history shown on the Politimetrics site has swings that seem unexplained by these guesses.

Politimetrics (associated with the Westminster Business School) has sponsored some additional Intrade contracts which will provide information about the impact of the presidential election on the country if they ever get enough liquidity. So far, there’s been no sign that much liquidity will exist.
One reason I (and presumably other traders) haven’t placed many orders is that the contracts deal with individual candidates. Since the value of the new contracts should fluctuate with the probability of the relevant candidate’s winning, and those fluctuations are currently much larger than any other factor affecting the prices, trading them would require any trader who doesn’t accept the market price to frequently monitor the prices of the underlying contracts. Nobody wants to do that unless the contracts already have significant volume.
Even if they had some liquidity, there’s a good deal of risk that the long-shot bias which appears to be common on Intrade would limit my confidence in the value of the information provided by those prices for all but the two or three candidates who are most likely to win in November (i.e. I’d probably believe what they said about Clinton relative to Obama, but I’d doubt they would be useful for voters in Republican primaries).
When it becomes clear who will win each party’s nomination, these problems will be reduced, and I’ll probably place a moderate number of orders on some of these contracts.
It should be possible to design a better user interface for decision markets of this nature so that users could place orders purely on the probable impact of a candidate’s election. Shock response futures come closer to doing that than contracts of the form “X wins and Y happens”, but can probably only indicate the direction of the impact.
I’ve created web pages at http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/amm/implied.html and http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/amm/implied4.html (which are currently being updated 4 times a day) which show implied prices (i.e. the price of the conditional contract as a percent of the price of the underlying candidate’s contract) that ought to represent what the markets think the probable effects would be if that candidate wins. Ideally traders could place orders expressed in terms of those implied prices, but that’s nontrivial to implement, and unlikely to happen unless someone pays Intrade a fair amount to create.
I’ve commented on Jed Christiansen’s blog about why I doubt the conditional contracts I’m subsidizing have had enough trading yet to produce valuable information. But the trends suggest there will be enough trading within a few weeks.