Comments for Bayesian Investor Blog http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog Ramblings of a somewhat libertarian stock market speculator Tue, 14 May 2013 17:01:32 -0700 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 Comment on Automated Market Makers and Liquidity by Peter http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2013/05/10/automated-market-makers-and-liquidity/comment-page-1/#comment-52856 Peter Tue, 14 May 2013 17:01:32 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=939#comment-52856 I believe the market maker's exposure would be bounded in a way that's fairly similar to Hanson's algorithm, but I haven't tried to prove it. How much have books orders typically increased the liquidity with Zocalo? Under my proposed algorithm, liquidity after 10 trades can be nearly 10 times the initial liquidity if the market seems to converge on a price that is near the starting price. I believe the market maker’s exposure would be bounded in a way that’s fairly similar to Hanson’s algorithm, but I haven’t tried to prove it.

How much have books orders typically increased the liquidity with Zocalo?

Under my proposed algorithm, liquidity after 10 trades can be nearly 10 times the initial liquidity if the market seems to converge on a price that is near the starting price.

]]> Comment on Automated Market Makers and Liquidity by Chris Hibbert http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2013/05/10/automated-market-makers-and-liquidity/comment-page-1/#comment-52837 Chris Hibbert Mon, 13 May 2013 05:31:09 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=939#comment-52837 I can't tell whether this algorithm limits the exposure of the market maker. Hanson's logarithmic market maker guarantees that a fixed investment will provide liquidity over the entire range of prices. Zocalo's implementation of a combined logarithmic rule with a book order market provides liquidity when the market is thin, and the book orders can thicken the market when there is more interest. I can’t tell whether this algorithm limits the exposure of the market maker. Hanson’s logarithmic market maker guarantees that a fixed investment will provide liquidity over the entire range of prices. Zocalo’s implementation of a combined logarithmic rule with a book order market provides liquidity when the market is thin, and the book orders can thicken the market when there is more interest.

]]> Comment on Probability Theory by Automated Market Makers and Liquidity « Bayesian Investor Blog http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2010/07/31/probability-theory/comment-page-1/#comment-52814 Automated Market Makers and Liquidity « Bayesian Investor Blog Sat, 11 May 2013 01:52:34 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=687#comment-52814 [...] present some sample Python code below (inspired by equation 18.44 in E.T. Jaynes’ Probability Theory) which uses the prices at which traders have traded against the market maker to generate [...] [...] present some sample Python code below (inspired by equation 18.44 in E.T. Jaynes’ Probability Theory) which uses the prices at which traders have traded against the market maker to generate [...]

]]> Comment on Causes of African Poverty by Why Nations Fail « Bayesian Investor Blog http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2007/09/19/causes-of-african-poverty/comment-page-1/#comment-52417 Why Nations Fail « Bayesian Investor Blog Sat, 16 Mar 2013 15:32:56 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2007/09/19/causes-of-african-poverty/#comment-52417 [...] book contains a blurb from Fukuyama). Fukuyama doesn’t seem to discuss Africa much, but the effects of slave trade seem to have large long-lasting consequences on social [...] [...] book contains a blurb from Fukuyama). Fukuyama doesn’t seem to discuss Africa much, but the effects of slave trade seem to have large long-lasting consequences on social [...]

]]> Comment on Talking20 by Scarlett http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2013/01/10/talking20/comment-page-1/#comment-52180 Scarlett Sat, 12 Jan 2013 22:32:02 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=919#comment-52180 Hi Peter, Thank you for your interest in Talking20. Keep in mind that we have designed a price guarantee and a refund policy for our Gold Card subscribers. These subscribers make up the core of Talking20, and we hope that you will join our community soon. We are looking forward to tracking your data! Scarlett Hi Peter,
Thank you for your interest in Talking20. Keep in mind that we have designed a price guarantee and a refund policy for our Gold Card subscribers. These subscribers make up the core of Talking20, and we hope that you will join our community soon. We are looking forward to tracking your data!
Scarlett

]]> Comment on Talking20 by Peter http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2013/01/10/talking20/comment-page-1/#comment-52178 Peter Sat, 12 Jan 2013 04:00:21 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=919#comment-52178 My concern is that if they don't raise $100k to buy a mass spectrometer, they'll be losing money on every order and may not have enough money to deliver my results or may take forever to deliver. I expect that if I get results they will be higher quality than the erratic CardioChek system I've been using to test my cholesterol at home. My concern is that if they don’t raise $100k to buy a mass spectrometer, they’ll be losing money on every order and may not have enough money to deliver my results or may take forever to deliver. I expect that if I get results they will be higher quality than the erratic CardioChek system I’ve been using to test my cholesterol at home.

]]> Comment on Talking20 by Douglas Knight http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2013/01/10/talking20/comment-page-1/#comment-52176 Douglas Knight Fri, 11 Jan 2013 18:58:51 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=919#comment-52176 You seem to imply that your last paragraph follows from your previous paragraphs. It seems to me that you need an additional hypothesis, either that you also worry about their failing in a month or that you're not interested in one-off testing, but want a steady stream of highly comparable tests. One reason not to want one-off testing is that you don't trust the quality of the results. But then you probably don't want to be the first customer, even if the company is going to continue. If you're worried about systematic biases, a long stream of tests addresses that and being the first customer is OK. If you are interested in one-off testing and you think they will deliver cards and results in a month, then you might worry that you can use one card, but they will fail or be shut down before you use the other two. If you would buy these tests at current market cost, it is worth the gamble (but maybe timing and bundling makes the hypothesis implausible). Alternatively, give away the other cards so that they get used immediately. (Are they tied to individuals?) You seem to imply that your last paragraph follows from your previous paragraphs. It seems to me that you need an additional hypothesis, either that you also worry about their failing in a month or that you’re not interested in one-off testing, but want a steady stream of highly comparable tests.

One reason not to want one-off testing is that you don’t trust the quality of the results. But then you probably don’t want to be the first customer, even if the company is going to continue. If you’re worried about systematic biases, a long stream of tests addresses that and being the first customer is OK.

If you are interested in one-off testing and you think they will deliver cards and results in a month, then you might worry that you can use one card, but they will fail or be shut down before you use the other two. If you would buy these tests at current market cost, it is worth the gamble (but maybe timing and bundling makes the hypothesis implausible). Alternatively, give away the other cards so that they get used immediately. (Are they tied to individuals?)

]]> Comment on The Signal and the Noise by Ed (Martin & Co) http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2012/10/29/the-signal-and-the-noise/comment-page-1/#comment-51773 Ed (Martin & Co) Tue, 06 Nov 2012 14:54:02 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=901#comment-51773 If you are political junkie, the book is definitely a good read. The models presented cover diverse areas like baseball (and politics) and there is quite a bit of applicable technical talk. However, I would say that there could be a bit more 'insight' and a little less 'noise'. If you are political junkie, the book is definitely a good read. The models presented cover diverse areas like baseball (and politics) and there is quite a bit of applicable technical talk. However, I would say that there could be a bit more ‘insight’ and a little less ‘noise’.

]]> Comment on The Signal and the Noise by Dave Asprey (The Bulletproof Executive Guy) http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2012/10/29/the-signal-and-the-noise/comment-page-1/#comment-51693 Dave Asprey (The Bulletproof Executive Guy) Tue, 30 Oct 2012 01:01:21 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=901#comment-51693 Nice...no one has ever called me an obesity skeptic before. I think I'm...complimented. :) Nice…no one has ever called me an obesity skeptic before. I think I’m…complimented. :)

]]> Comment on The Institutional Revolution by Quantified Self Conference « Bayesian Investor Blog http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2012/03/09/the-institutional-revolution/comment-page-1/#comment-51602 Quantified Self Conference « Bayesian Investor Blog Thu, 11 Oct 2012 02:06:44 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=847#comment-51602 [...] Kelly called this “The Measured Century”. People still underestimate how much improved measurement contributed to the industrial revolution. If we’re seeing a much larger improvement in measurement, people will likely underestimate [...] [...] Kelly called this “The Measured Century”. People still underestimate how much improved measurement contributed to the industrial revolution. If we’re seeing a much larger improvement in measurement, people will likely underestimate [...]

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