Comments for Bayesian Investor Blog http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog Ramblings of a somewhat libertarian stock market speculator Mon, 28 Dec 2009 15:54:36 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.6 hourly 1 Comment on Moral Machines by gwern http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/12/27/moral-machines/comment-page-1/#comment-43335 gwern Mon, 28 Dec 2009 15:54:36 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=323#comment-43335 Your last paragraph makes no sense to me; did you drop a few words or something? Your last paragraph makes no sense to me; did you drop a few words or something?

]]> Comment on Finding Alpha by jsalvatier http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/12/01/finding-alpha/comment-page-1/#comment-43317 jsalvatier Wed, 02 Dec 2009 04:59:48 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=315#comment-43317 I am glad you reviewed this book. You add a valuable perspective. I wish that I knew a good way to invest in his Minimum Variance Portfolio I am glad you reviewed this book. You add a valuable perspective. I wish that I knew a good way to invest in his Minimum Variance Portfolio

]]> Comment on Automated Market Maker Results by Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL. | Midas Oracle .ORG http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/13/automated-market-maker-results/comment-page-1/#comment-43315 Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL. | Midas Oracle .ORG Tue, 24 Nov 2009 14:40:14 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/13/automated-market-maker-results/#comment-43315 [...] [...] I conclude those four contracts did not provide valuable information about how the [2008 US presiden.... [...] [...] [...] I conclude those four contracts did not provide valuable information about how the [2008 US presiden.... [...]

]]> Comment on Turning the Repugnant Conclusion into Utopia by Overcoming Bias : Poor Folks Do Smile http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/09/25/turning-the-repugnant-conclusion-into-utopia/comment-page-1/#comment-43294 Overcoming Bias : Poor Folks Do Smile Sat, 26 Sep 2009 18:43:45 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/?p=301#comment-43294 [...] Peter McCluskey: [...] [...] Peter McCluskey: [...]

]]> Comment on Meltdown by Peter McCluskey http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/08/28/meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-43242 Peter McCluskey Sat, 29 Aug 2009 21:41:48 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/08/28/meltdown/#comment-43242 Monetary policy provides a free lunch if it fixes problems connected to the value of the currency. I would model your example as the Fed altering who loses the $50k, and maybe at the same time preventing some hard to measure harm by stabilizing the value of the dollar. Monetary policy provides a free lunch if it fixes problems connected to the value of the currency. I would model your example as the Fed altering who loses the $50k, and maybe at the same time preventing some hard to measure harm by stabilizing the value of the dollar.

]]> Comment on Meltdown by dave http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/08/28/meltdown/comment-page-1/#comment-43239 dave Fri, 28 Aug 2009 23:30:15 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/08/28/meltdown/#comment-43239 ok, i have a question for you: assume a bank makes a $100k bad loan. and they take a $50k loss on it. "money" was destroyed. now assume the fed prints $50k and gives it to the bank through various programs/edicts. also assume the fed will remove this $50k as soon as velocity picks up so that the inflation impact is negligible. who bears the cost of the malinvestment in this case? nobody. I'm tempted to assert there was no malinvestment. except maybe for the materials used to build that house, but that's negligible. is modern monetary policy the proverbial free lunch? ok, i have a question for you:

assume a bank makes a $100k bad loan. and they take a $50k loss on it. “money” was destroyed.

now assume the fed prints $50k and gives it to the bank through various programs/edicts.

also assume the fed will remove this $50k as soon as velocity picks up so that the inflation impact is negligible.

who bears the cost of the malinvestment in this case? nobody.
I’m tempted to assert there was no malinvestment. except maybe for the materials used to build that house, but that’s negligible.

is modern monetary policy the proverbial free lunch?

]]> Comment on Flynn Effect Explained by Bayesian Investor Blog » Blog Archive » More on the Flynn Effect http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2007/10/08/flynn-effect-explained/comment-page-1/#comment-43053 Bayesian Investor Blog » Blog Archive » More on the Flynn Effect Sun, 02 Aug 2009 16:27:28 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2007/10/08/flynn-effect-explained/#comment-43053 [...] review by Cosma Shalizi of James Flynn’s book What Is Intelligence? provides some interesting criticisms of Flynn (while agreeing with much of what Flynn [...] [...] review by Cosma Shalizi of James Flynn’s book What Is Intelligence? provides some interesting criticisms of Flynn (while agreeing with much of what Flynn [...]

]]> Comment on Confusing S&P Index Earnings Numbers by Peter McCluskey http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/07/04/confusing-sp-index-earnings-numbers/comment-page-1/#comment-42957 Peter McCluskey Sun, 05 Jul 2009 15:33:33 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/07/04/confusing-sp-index-earnings-numbers/#comment-42957 I'll probably get around to that someday. Judging from his <a href="http://www.overcomingbias.com/2007/05/are_almost_all_.html" rel="nofollow">Overcoming Bias post on the subject</a>, I'll probably agree with most of his conclusions. His objections to CAPM seem clear enough that I don't need a whole book to convince me. I’ll probably get around to that someday. Judging from his Overcoming Bias post on the subject, I’ll probably agree with most of his conclusions. His objections to CAPM seem clear enough that I don’t need a whole book to convince me.

]]> Comment on Confusing S&P Index Earnings Numbers by jsalvati http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/07/04/confusing-sp-index-earnings-numbers/comment-page-1/#comment-42953 jsalvati Sun, 05 Jul 2009 06:12:02 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2009/07/04/confusing-sp-index-earnings-numbers/#comment-42953 Can I ask you to please review Eric Falkenstein's recent book, Finding Alpha about how CAPM fails empirically? I feel like his idea is a fairly big one (that the lack of a relationship between market risk and return implies investors care about relative wealth, not total wealth). He also has a paper on SSRN which is a condensed version of the book: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1420356 Can I ask you to please review Eric Falkenstein’s recent book, Finding Alpha about how CAPM fails empirically? I feel like his idea is a fairly big one (that the lack of a relationship between market risk and return implies investors care about relative wealth, not total wealth). He also has a paper on SSRN which is a condensed version of the book: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1420356

]]> Comment on Unconventional Sex, Gender by Greg http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/05/05/unconventional-sex-gender/comment-page-1/#comment-42797 Greg Thu, 18 Jun 2009 16:25:01 +0000 http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2006/05/05/unconventional-sex-gender/#comment-42797 Although I did not read this book yet, I wanted to add my thoughts on this topic. It see the transexual/queer point of view in politics and society. However, even if I were transexual or queer I would not be trying to redefine societies laws and calling everyone that disagrees with me a bigot. I have tollerance & I am understanding. Our world is getting smaller with increases in technology so we must all learn to live together. I am tollerant of any lifestyle. I do not think that means I must agree with that lifestyle or let that lifestyle affect me. Does that make me a bigot? If so, then those opposed to my point of view are bigots as well since they are not tollerant of my lifestyle and choices. "Fear of transsexuals has little to do with the fear that gay men will spread sexually transmitted diseases." - I live in the Bible Belt, own an STD clinic in Plano, Texas, and I agree with this quote. Although I did not read this book yet, I wanted to add my thoughts on this topic. It see the transexual/queer point of view in politics and society. However, even if I were transexual or queer I would not be trying to redefine societies laws and calling everyone that disagrees with me a bigot. I have tollerance & I am understanding. Our world is getting smaller with increases in technology so we must all learn to live together. I am tollerant of any lifestyle. I do not think that means I must agree with that lifestyle or let that lifestyle affect me. Does that make me a bigot? If so, then those opposed to my point of view are bigots as well since they are not tollerant of my lifestyle and choices.

“Fear of transsexuals has little to do with the fear that gay men will spread sexually transmitted diseases.” – I live in the Bible Belt, own an STD clinic in Plano, Texas, and I agree with this quote.

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