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	<title>Bayesian Investor Blog &#187; polls</title>
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		<title>Intrade versus FiveThirtyEight</title>
		<link>http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/intrade-versus-fivethirtyeight/</link>
		<comments>http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/intrade-versus-fivethirtyeight/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Nov 2008 19:55:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Peter</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Idea Futures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2008 election]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[polls]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/11/06/intrade-versus-fivethirtyeight/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A number of people have compared the final forecasts for the election (e.g. this), but I&#8217;m more interested in longer term forecasting, so I&#8217;m comparing the state-by-state predictions of Intrade and FiveThirtyEight on the dates for which I saved FiveThirtyEight data a month or more before the election.
Here is a table of states where Intrade [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A number of people have compared the final forecasts for the election (e.g. <a href="http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/odd-numbers/2008/11/05/and-the-winner-isprediction-markets">this</a>), but I&#8217;m more interested in longer term forecasting, so I&#8217;m comparing the state-by-state predictions of <a href="http://www.intrade.com">Intrade</a> and <a href="http://www.FiveThirtyEight.com">FiveThirtyEight</a> on the dates for which I saved FiveThirtyEight data a month or more before the election.</p>
<p>Here is a table of states where Intrade disagreed with FiveThirtyEight on one of the first four dates for which I <a href="http://www.bayesianinvestor.com/blog/index.php/2008/09/07/intrade-notes/">saved</a> FiveThirtyEight data or where they were both wrong on July 24. The numbers are probability of a Democrat winning the state&#8217;s electoral votes, with the Intrade forecast first and the FiveThirtyEight forecast second.</p>
<table>
<tr>
<td>State</td>
<td>2008-07-24</td>
<td>2008-08-22</td>
<td>2008-09-14</td>
<td>2008-10-01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CO</td>
<td>71/68</td>
<td>60/53</td>
<td>54.5/46</td>
<td>67.5/84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FL</td>
<td>42/29</td>
<td>34.5/28</td>
<td>30/14</td>
<td>55.2/70</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>IN</td>
<td>38/26</td>
<td>34.1/15</td>
<td>20/11</td>
<td>38/51</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>MO</td>
<td>50/26</td>
<td>32.9/13</td>
<td>22.1/11</td>
<td>42.5/48</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NC</td>
<td>30/22</td>
<td>25/21</td>
<td>14/7</td>
<td>51/50</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NV</td>
<td>51.2/49</td>
<td>49/45</td>
<td>44.9/32</td>
<td>55/66</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>OH</td>
<td>65/53</td>
<td>50/38</td>
<td>40/29</td>
<td>53.5/68</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VA</td>
<td>60.5/50</td>
<td>52.3/36</td>
<td>42/22</td>
<td>59/79</td>
</tr>
</table>
<p>On July 24, both sites predicted Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina wrong. FiveThirtyEight got Indiana right on Oct 1 when Intrade was still wrong, but Intrade got North Carolina right on that date (just barely) while FiveThirtyEight rated it a toss-up.<br />
Intrade got Nevada right on July 24 (just barely) while FiveThirtyEight got it wrong (just barely).<br />
For Virginia, Intrade was right in July and August while FiveThirtyEight was undecided and then wrong.<br />
FiveThirtyEight got Colorado wrong on September 14, but Intrade didn&#8217;t.<br />
FiveThirtyEight got Ohio wrong on August 22, while Intrade got it right.<br />
Intrade rated Missouri a toss-up on July 24, while FiveThirtyEight got it right.</p>
<p>On September 14, FiveThirtyEight was fooled by McCain&#8217;s post convention bounce by a larger margin than Intrade, but by Oct 1 FiveThirtyEight was more confident about correcting those errors.<br />
For states that were not closely contested, there were numerous examples where Intrade prices where closer to 50 than FiveThirtyEight. It&#8217;s likely that this represents long-shot bias on Intrade.</p>
<p>In sum, Intrade made slightly better forecasts for the closely contested states through at least mid September, but after that FiveThirtyEight was at least as good and more decisive. Except for Intrade&#8217;s Missouri forecast on July 24, the errors seem largely due to underestimating the effects of economic problems &#8211; errors which were also widespread in most forecasts for other things affected by the recession.</p>
<p>In the senate races, I didn&#8217;t save FiveThirtyEight forecasts from before November 1. It looks like both Intrade and FiveThirtyEight made similar errors on the Alaska and Minnesota races.<br />
[Update on 2009-01-13: contrary to initial reports, they apparently got the Alaska and Minnesota races right, although there's still some doubt about Minnesota.]</p>
<p>On the other hand, Intrade had been fairly consistently (but not confidently) saying since early July that California&#8217;s Proposition 8 (banning same-sex marriage) would be defeated. Pollsters as a group did a somewhat better job there by issuing conflicting reports.</p>
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